Poll: BTC Price Prognostication

Discussion in 'Economics and Finance' started by LastChanceArmada, Jan 16, 2018.

?

Bitcoin price will do the following in 2018:

Poll closed Jan 26, 2018.
This is just a temporary blip on its road to some almost unimaginable price, like $100k. 0 vote(s) 0.0%
The price will recover, but it will just slowly inch back up, maybe stabilizing around $20k again 1 vote(s) 16.7%
It will continue to go down but will still find a floor somewhere in the multiple thousands. 3 vote(s) 50.0%
Down, down down in a manner not seen since the .com bubble, $1000 or less 1 vote(s) 16.7%
Other (please explain) 1 vote(s) 16.7%
  1. LastChanceArmada Forum Veteran

    Member Since:
    Mar 22, 2011
    Message Count:
    547
    Reputation:
    41,707,848
    Ratings Received:
    +968 / 0 / -1
    Bitcoin suffered a massive loss recently and is worth about 40% less than it was exactly one month ago. What do you think about the future of this particular cryptocurrency?
    • Informative Informative x 1
    • List
  2. LastChanceArmada Forum Veteran

    Member Since:
    Mar 22, 2011
    Message Count:
    547
    Reputation:
    41,707,848
    Ratings Received:
    +968 / 0 / -1
    I can't for the life of me get my head around this. Its valuation is so ridiculous it beggars belief, but it seems like it's captured the public mind in a manner I've not seen since I started paying attention to the stock market in the late 90's.

    For all of the hype around Ripple, Etherium, Litecoin, etc. the real-world application of these things still seems to be limited to purchasing narcotics on the darkweb. It's also got the sort of "Office Normie Water Cooler" mass participation aspect which is suggestive of a bubble (when Burger King rolled out a faux-crypto "BurgerCoin" I figured the end was near.)

    That being said, I was wrong about this so many times I've given up trying to understand it at this point. I spent an evening reading about the blockchain just so I could fake it through an "educated noob" conversation on it but the astronomical price for cryptos just don't make sense to me. There were so many times it was suggested to me I get in on this and I just never jumped on board, and these little speculative energy and mining stocks I've got in my little speculative play-trading portfolio have me up a whopping 5% overall.
    Latest Given Reputation Points:
    Angroid: 117,797 Points Jan 17, 2018
  3. SureNot Active Member

    Member Since:
    Oct 11, 2017
    Message Count:
    77
    Reputation:
    3,114,337
    Ratings Received:
    +87 / 2 / -2
    The bitcoin bubble will eventually pop as to when its really hard to say.

    Blockchain and crypto is here to stay though, thats for sure.
    • Informative Informative x 2
    • List
  4. Angroid CyberSperg 1138

    Member Since:
    Sep 4, 2012
    Message Count:
    6,068
    Location:
    EUSSR
    Reputation:
    122,281,115
    Ratings Received:
    +8,656 / 28 / -46
    Agreed!

    It's moved slightly beyond that but my view is similar to yours, it's not exactly a household transactional tool or currency, not yet anyway.

    I don't think you were necessarily "wrong" but it's a confusing topic and uncharted territory to some extent. My views are as follows:

    You (and me) are both wrong & right being skeptical about the crypto craze. We were right because we are not completely gullible or stupid and saw things for what they were, ie that it's an overhyped bubble and basically a pyramid scheme. However, where we went wrong is that - at the same time - it is maturing as a technology and at some point it will go mainstream although in a much less spectacular fashion than the rises and dips we've been seeing thus far.

    Understanding "money" and value.
    To understand "crypto" one has to first understand what money & value is. Money itself has no value. It is a means of simplifying exchange between parties. The :jew: money-changers have largely perverted money through fraudulent accounting trickery but that's another topic. Suffice to say that what we use today as (fiat) money is worthless, debased junk. However, that money system is held in place by laws, armies and police which means we're forced to use it.

    What has value?
    Commodities & land are what has value. Arguably one could include services ie the poledancer at the club or the builder who extends your home are "service providers" and those services have value. As for the rest, value is basically food produced on the farm or the factory, manufactured goods, resources, land etc. Money is just the facilitator in the trade of things of value.

    Bitcoin as an example:
    Bitcoin itself is completely worthless, it's a digital series of numbers, machine generated. A "token" effectively. It has no "value" backing of any kind, be it from Commodities, Land, A Standing Army, Police, State Laws etc. People who acquire BTC do it in the faith that others will want to trade for it. It works great as long as everybody believes. Once that belief dissipates so does the ability to exchange worthless BTC tokens for commodities, land or services.

    Having said all this, crypto-currencies in their current guise offer fantastic speculating opportunities to the brave and the foolish. If you play your cards right you can literally make a killing, or get wiped out. As an *investment*, it is a poor choice in my view because it is simply too risky and it has zero inherent "value", unlike commodities or land.

    In future, fake Jew :jew: fiat money will increasingly be moved to Digital / Crypto payment platforms. Currently there are 100's if not 1000's of wild west style unregulated crypto "money" systems at work. This anarchic situation is both a good and a bad thing, depending on how you look at it. Good in the sense that Gubbermint haven't yet taken control of it, bad in the sense that it's a crazy free for all which makes it unsuitable for use as an investment and a reasonably trustworthy exchange platform.

    My prediction (and you don't need a crystal ball for this one) is that a more sedate & regulated incarnation of crypto will emerge in the near future. In the mean time the crazy crypto rollercoaster will keep running a while longer.

    Whatever you guys do
    - NEVER gamble money on "currency" speculation that you cannot afford to lose.
    - Realise that none of these cryptos have any fucking "value" whatsoever.
    - Realise it's an extremely risky "investment" and don't treat it as one. Treat it for what it is - a speculative instrument.
    Latest Given Reputation Points:
    Georg Schoenerer: 50,308 Points Jan 17, 2018
    WFHermans: 33,177 Points (Facts.) Jan 17, 2018
    Bluto: 263,505 Points Jan 17, 2018
    • Agree Agree x 2
    • Like Like x 1
    • Informative Informative x 1
    • List
  5. Poète Maudit Decadent

    Member Since:
    May 11, 2012
    Message Count:
    510
    Reputation:
    2,269,124
    Ratings Received:
    +442 / 56 / -102
    Nope. Value is something assigned to them by humans. Just like money. And Bitcoin. In this case presumably because they have some kind of utility. Sure, if money were to no longer serve you as a medium of exchange it might become "worthless", but then what good is land if you have nothing to grow or build on it? It's all relative. Commodities? To a man dyimg thirst a glass of water has more value than a truckload of steel. Bottom line is that money serves a function which achieves something which cannot be achieved without it, a function humans want, and it therefore "has" and retains value (most of the time).
  6. WFHermans Forum Veteran

    Member Since:
    May 12, 2010
    Message Count:
    693
    Reputation:
    34,413,718
    Ratings Received:
    +1,107 / 9 / -0
    Bitcoins have worth by themselves.

    According to mathematics that I won't even try to understand, the maximum number of Bitcoins that can ever be coined until into the 22nd century will be 21 million.

    I think of Bitcoins mostly like old coins made of worthless metals, or Confederate Dollars - there is a limited number of them, which gives it some minimum worth by being rare. And it's easier to trade Bitcoins than old money.
  7. Apocales 4:35a.m. just one more episode..

    Member Since:
    Apr 20, 2010
    Message Count:
    22,004
    Location:
    Your head - rent free.
    Reputation:
    109,150,083
    Ratings Received:
    +13,269 / 84 / -145
    It's all pretty risky as it seems to go up and down as any negative news brings it down similar to the stock market. It's pretty apparent people have been pumping and dumping, and the insane fees that places like coinbase charge as well restrict sales means to me means trouble. Plenty of investment methods which are less risky I involve myself in and cannot say I'm that displeased.
  8. LastChanceArmada Forum Veteran

    Member Since:
    Mar 22, 2011
    Message Count:
    547
    Reputation:
    41,707,848
    Ratings Received:
    +968 / 0 / -1
    You've touched on a very important point here, which is how futile it can feel to have an outsider or "contrarian" perspective to human nature when it comes to markets. The plus side is that you can usually see the ridiculous mania for what it is, but the downside is that you never "feel" the bubble the way the normie does. This might help you from losing a lot of money, but the problem is that the contrarian never is really able to get inside the head of the mass mind, either, so tends to get out of things way too early. For example, I heard a well-respected money manager talk about how he thought that tech stocks were getting very overheated in 1998 and got his clients out of them, only to miss most of the super-bubble at the end. Was this a good move or not? Well, he avoided the most egregious losses, but also missed the really huge part of the gains.

    I know a guy who cashed out half his 401k to buy Etherium recently. He has no market experience or anything of that nature. I advised him to not "invest" (gamble) with cryptocurrencies with any money he couldn't afford to lose, but he did not listen to me. Quite frankly, I can't get my head inside this sort of mentality since I'm just not in the same "aetheric space", but this same guy also bought two BTC around $2500 which seemed suicidal to me at the time, but ended up being a good move. Someone who just watches normie television, reads normie media, etc. just feels things in a more visceral way. It's like people who get excited about the latest Star Wars movie or what have you, it just doesn't make sense to me at all.

    The bottom line is -- it's probably best to be someone who's largely normie, but also slightly contrarian. Like I said, buying BTC at $2500 seemed like a hilariously bad move to me, but apparently it was not. Now said guy did not sell at $18000 and is convinced the latest crash is just a little blip before it goes to $100k. We'll see who's right on that one as the year progresses.
    Latest Given Reputation Points:
    Angroid: 119,138 Points Jan 20, 2018
    • Informative Informative x 2
    • List
  9. Angroid CyberSperg 1138

    Member Since:
    Sep 4, 2012
    Message Count:
    6,068
    Location:
    EUSSR
    Reputation:
    122,281,115
    Ratings Received:
    +8,656 / 28 / -46
    It's gambling & speculation, pure & simple. So far, so good for him but nevertheless imo it's not something a sensible person would do with their retirement fund. What is the definition of "sensible"? I guess in this case to me it means somebody who does not take extravagant risks and rather plays it conservative & safe & boring. The returns may be modest but otoh you're also not likely to end up on Skid Row.
  10. LastChanceArmada Forum Veteran

    Member Since:
    Mar 22, 2011
    Message Count:
    547
    Reputation:
    41,707,848
    Ratings Received:
    +968 / 0 / -1
    It's not looking good here with it being around $8500 as I type this. The chart for this thing is utterly terrible, classic "vomiting camel" with lower highs and lower lows (although I'm not sure if this thing is even amenable to Technical Analysis 101 given how unprecedented it is), but it looks like there's some support around the high $5000's. If it can't hold that I don't know if there's even any support in the quadruple digits.
    • Funny Funny x 1
    • Informative Informative x 1
    • List
  11. Angroid CyberSperg 1138

    Member Since:
    Sep 4, 2012
    Message Count:
    6,068
    Location:
    EUSSR
    Reputation:
    122,281,115
    Ratings Received:
    +8,656 / 28 / -46
    One can get too lost in the "science" and details of this stuff. It's worthless speculative junk tied and tapped into the Global Juden Economic Racket. Inevitably its "value" will reflect whatever games the Kikenrats are playing on the Markets, at the Funny Money Printers, War & Disaster Pr0n they manufacture or promote into the hysteria of the day through Jewmedia etc. etc. etc.

    The secret to making (worthless) ZOGBux (which can currently still be exchanged for things of value such as machinery, land, food, guns, hookers etc) is to make one's best guestimates of when the markets are going to be manipulated into an upward phase, and when the inevitable crashes (which cleans out the chumps and transfers their wealth to the insider tribal traders) are going to be engineered in. Getting this right isn't really a science, it's more of an intuition and an analysis of probability based on experience and observation - alternatively it's having access to accurate insider information but let's face it, most goyim won't.

    The crypto rackets are no different. It runs on hype and idealist naivety of mostly younger, hipster types who think they've hit on a lead-to-gold formula to getting rich quick. And certainly, people who got in early (as with any pyramid scheme) have done spectacularly well as the herd started piling in later and boosted the scale and the numbers of the operation.
  12. LastChanceArmada Forum Veteran

    Member Since:
    Mar 22, 2011
    Message Count:
    547
    Reputation:
    41,707,848
    Ratings Received:
    +968 / 0 / -1
    Yes, Millennial "crypto currency traders" (i.e., any 27 year old Web designer with a Kraken account accessed from Macbook Pro [after unsheating from $300 Chrome messenger bag in the Mission District]) don't even remember the .com debacle except for something that happened in history books. People definitely need to listen to the really old guys, like the guys who have actually lived through multiple boom and bust periods. It's just not something that you can generally "get" until you live it experientially.

    When BTC couldn't break through $20k, that did seem like at least a very strong likelihood that it had reached a top, or at least an interim top. Overall, though, I just can't get my head around some sort of vapor "commodity" such that one set of bits and bytes is the equivalent of a decent used car (which $19k will definitely get you.) We'll see what happens here, but the way that chart looks (again, not saying this thing is necessarily amenable to technical analysis) like complete and utter shit. Anyone still thinking they're "buying the dip" here is probably going to get their ass handed to them: it's really a "look out below" sort of affair at this point.

    My whole issue with cryptos is as far as their actual use, they're still a novelty. Sure, a few retailers accept them now, but why would you want any "cash" that's this volatile? One of the trademark features of cash is that it tends to hold its value. There's just no reason to walk around using Bitcoin for anything, unless you're a drug dealer who wants to launder money somehow with it I suppose. I don't see retailers accepting a basket of cryptocurrencies as being anything other than a complete hassle. Most likely there will be just a half dozen left standing, and at some point in the future, just two of them -- and even then, will they have much use aside from moving money offshore (which could be curtailed at any time by hostile gubmint) or buying drugs on the darkweb (ditto)?
    Latest Given Reputation Points:
    Angroid: 121,605 Points Feb 3, 2018
    • Post of the Day Post of the Day x 2
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • List
  13. Angroid CyberSperg 1138

    Member Since:
    Sep 4, 2012
    Message Count:
    6,068
    Location:
    EUSSR
    Reputation:
    122,281,115
    Ratings Received:
    +8,656 / 28 / -46
    This ^^. 200%

    The older guys have been around, have seen it all and the experienced & smart ones (who somehow managed to stay in the game) know better than to put blind faith into anything. The younger guys tend to think they know it all, that the older guys are "past it fossils" and they tend to buy fully into dreams and delusions that the older guys have already seen or been burnt by in the past.

    Nevertheless, as with many schemes and scams, the ones who got in early and (perhaps somewhat foolishly) committed themselves have come out winners whilst the cautious ones who held back didn't. Classic risk vs reward and "are you prepared to lose your pension" vs "what does it matter if I get cleaned out now."

    For people around retirement age it's a foolish gambit. For the young uns it's one big adventure.
    Latest Given Reputation Points:
    Yakoff Jizzrael: 4,069 Points Feb 8, 2018
    • Agree Agree x 2
    • Informative Informative x 1
    • List
  14. Yakoff Jizzrael Bar Regular

    Member Since:
    May 8, 2010
    Message Count:
    182
    Location:
    outhouse
    Reputation:
    4,061,748
    Ratings Received:
    +111 / 9 / -13

    Wisdom comes with age.
  15. WFHermans Forum Veteran

    Member Since:
    May 12, 2010
    Message Count:
    693
    Reputation:
    34,413,718
    Ratings Received:
    +1,107 / 9 / -0
    The great thing about living in these times is that we are just a few clicks away from knowing about present and past, and realizing there isn't much news under the sun. There was an effort to sell "internet dollars" for real dollars during the internet bubble in 1999, the "internet dollars" were real cheap, you could get 5 of them for only $4! But the scammers were then scammed themselves, so the story was, by Russians who used stolen credit card numbers to get "internet dollars" for free.

    Apparently real bitcoins are more secure though, just as Confederate Dollars and one trillion Reichsmark bills they will retain some worth.

Share This Page