Derivatives, the unregulated Global Casino for Banks

Discussion in 'Economics and Finance' started by Angroid, Jan 17, 2013.

  1. Angroid Thug Life

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    Interesting graphic representations of banks' derivatives exposures here.

    http://demonocracy.info/infographics/usa/derivatives/bank_exposure.html


    http://seekingalpha.com/article/600...es-too-big-to-fail-or-too-exposed-to-be-saved
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  2. Hawthorne Abendsen Number One Epic Sloth

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  4. Cat Herder Active Member

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    Not all derivatives are futures , although that is a very prominent kind. Futures and CDS are the ones that make me nervous. They should be banned.
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  5. Cat Herder Active Member

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    I used to work in the derivatives business I'll explain it better when I have a keyboard rather than a smartphone.

    But the short story: they can be based off future commodity values, credit (these two are dangerous), foreign exchange, or bond to stock conversion.
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  6. Hawthorne Abendsen Number One Epic Sloth

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    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...an-resigns-aftermath-latest-derivatives-fiasc

    Oldest Bank In The World Plunges, Halted As Chairman Resigns In Aftermath Of Latest Derivatives Fiasco

    [IMG]
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/23/2013 08:41 -0500


    Last week, following documentation from Deutsche Bank (and Nomura), it became clear that Italy's Monte Paschi (BMPS) bank (the oldest in the world) has engaged in derivatives with the German and Japanese banks in order to save itself during the financial crisis. The derivatives, according to Bloomberg, were done off-market and allowed the booking of large upfront gains which covered losses optically that the bank faced as European liquidity dried up completely - the offsetting 'losses' are now coming due. Today, amid growing outcry over the 'deal', the former head of BMPS has resigned. Bloomberg reports that Giuseppe Mussari, now Italy's top banking lobbyist, was the Chairman of BMPS during the derivative deal period. BMPS shares were halted after plunging dramatically as investors are still unclear of the extent of losses it faces on derivatives. If that was not enough chicanery, there is a twist in that none other than Mario Draghi, as Director of the Bank of Italy, would have had to vet Mussari (and his banks' regulated books) during this period - as BMPS accumulated what is obviously undocumented derivatives positions to intentionally obscure losses. Once again, years later, it seems the truth comes out - and of course we would expect no-one to go to jail - and the lying in Europe (then and now) continues unabated - as the reality of financial system health remains hidden from view.

    [IMG]

    Via Bloomberg,


    Former Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA Chairman Giuseppe Mussari quit as Italy’s top banking lobbyist as scrutiny of the lender’s use of derivatives deepens.

    The resignation is effective immediately, he said in a letter posted to the Italian Banking Association today. He leaves as Monte Paschi, where he was chairman from 2006 until April, comes under growing pressure to disclose the extent of losses it faces on derivatives.

    The lender fell 5.7 percent to 27.75 cents in Milan trading today, the biggest decliner in Europe’s 46-member Stoxx 600 Banks Index, after Il Fatto Quotidiano reported Monte Paschi’s former managers signed contracts with Nomura Holdings Inc. (8604) three years ago that will reduce 2012 earnings by 220 million euros ($293 million). Nomura said in a statement Mussari “fully reviewed and approved” the trade.

    I always acted according to the law,” Mussari, 50, wrote. “I took the decision to not damage the association.”

    Monte Paschi said on Jan. 17 it will review its accounts after Bloomberg News first reported that the lender engaged in a derivative with Deutsche Bank AG in 2008 that obscured losses before the Siena-based bank sought a government bailout. The Italian lender, which was bailed out in 2009, is seeking 500 million euros more from taxpayers, bringing the total cost of its rescue to 3.9 billion euros.
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  7. Hawthorne Abendsen Number One Epic Sloth

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    http://capitalisteric.wordpress.com/2013/02/07/the-30000-foot-view-of-whats-coming/
    The 30,000 foot view of what’s coming…

    with 8 comments
    In today’s world of instant news, “spin” from MSM and their shills, and the constant struggle to make a living in a declining economy, it’s difficult to understand the big picture. This essay is an attempt to bring the latest news into a single coherent essay, and share what I see happening… and what it means.

    As a result of the Newtown School shootings, big-government elites have been hammering HARD for their version of gun control- which is really “victim disarmament.” Indeed, the push has been more aggressive and contentious than anything I’ve ever seen. The obvious goal of our government (as the NDAA and NDRP amply demonstrate) is complete and total control of the population, and elimination of any possibility of armed resistance to their hidden agenda. Oh, we know the agenda is power, but we don’t know the details of why, when or where… or do we?

    There are plenty of official proclamations as to how much debt the USA has-$16 Trillion.

    But the unofficial debt, using Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) now stands at $238 Trillion. Against an annual GDP of approximately $16 Trillion, that means that every dollar of value created by goods and services for the next 15 years is already spent. And that number, by the way, is in today’s dollars.

    Current estimates place the current “financial weapons of mass destruction,” the derivatives (or bad debts) outstanding, at $1.5 Quadrillion. How can one comprehend such a mind-boggling number? To answer that question, I took the measurements of a $1 bill, and calculated that this amount of money would cover the entire Earth with a layer of paper 1.24 inches thick. This is the amount of phony debt that is outstanding, waiting for the first domino to fall, where a bankrupt country goes to their bankrupt neighbor to collect, and so on. American banksters own approximately half of those bad bets- another 38 years of GDP gone.

    So while the “official” numbers show we’re in deep trouble, the real data clearly shows the USA isn’t merely financially “broke,” which implies we’re out of spending money… It shows we’re completely bankrupt, without any hope of getting out of the hole we’re in.

    Our main export at this point, isn’t jobs. That’s already gone, given away to the Chinese. Now, our main export is financial paper- or electronic dollars, to be more precise. The problem is that the ongoing collapse of the American economy- the basis of value for the American dollar- has made it obvious that the dollar is about to collapse.

    In the past, the dollar was backed by gold. This ended in 1971, when President Nixon disconnected the dollar from gold, and let it “float.” That is to say, the value of the dollar after this time, was a reflection of the value of the U.S. economy. In other words, it was based on faith that the government could repay its debts. As I’ve already shown, it is now impossible to repay the debts, and there is nothing left to support the dollar as the reserve currency. We have no gold, no industry, nothing except nearly 50 million people who are broke, out of work and hungry, and roughly half of the electorate believes the other half “owes” them something (i.e., putting your money in their hands).

    The Chinese- no fools are they- have merely taken these worthless electronic digits, and used them to purchase real money- gold. In fact, they’ve imported literally hundreds of tons of it, in the last few years. At the NY Fed, where they supposedly store some 7000 tons of gold, much of it belonging to foreign countries. But that was before the Fed became blatant in their manipulation of gold and silver prices, by short-selling precious metals, to suppress gold and silver prices, while making the dollar appear more stable. Since the prices of gold and silver have gone up, the NY Fed has had to provide the collateral- gold- to cover the shorts,. As a result, there have been rumors that the gold is long gone- stolen or substituted with “salted” bars filled with tungsten.

    Germany owns 1536 metric tons of gold at the NY Fed, and they want to withdraw ~300 metric tons. The NY Fed claims it will take seven years to accomplish this. Of course, in 1965, France repatriated their gold reserves- in one day, by loading it onto a battleship. Considering how fast the economy is spiraling down the toilet, seven years might as well be 700. Now the Swiss are lining up a referendum (which will obtain enough support) to demand that all of their gold comes home, too- all 1040 tons of it. Nobody knows how much of it sits in New York, but I hope you’re getting the picture. Basically, it appears that a gold run has begun, where everyone who owns gold at the NY Fed wants it back.

    That the NY Fed can’t deliver can mean only one of two things: it’s not there, or what is still there has claims of ownership by more than one country, which is legally (and practically) the same thing.

    Going back to the Chinese, they’ve been acquiring gold for years, at artificially low prices. As well, they’re buying gold mines and physical assets such as land, all over the world. In other words, they’re getting out of the dollar, buying whatever they can with it, while it still has some value. Why? Well, the IMF announced this week that the Yuan is ready to be the worlds’ reserve currency. When that happens- and it will- the price of imported goods will go through the roof almost overnight, as every country will attempt to get rid of their dollars while they still can, and use some other currency for international trade.

    The dollar will be dumped as the worlds’ reserve currency, in a cascade as other countries holding dollars run for the exits. When this happens, the price of products that are imported will go up by 4-5 times, almost overnight (my best guess). This is the logical result of the Cloward-Piven strategy writ large.

    The price of oil- when no longer priced in dollars- will have ripple effects that will cause suffering on a scale never before seen in America. Consider the trucking industry, in a very real way, feeds the country. The food you eat, the clothes you wear, the furniture in your house… even the building materials for the house itself, were all delivered by truck. As the price of fuel skyrockets, trucking companies will attempt to pass on the costs to their customers (stores like Wal-Mart, for example), who will in turn pass it on to the consumer. Will the consumers pay so much more?

    Consider that while those desperate people who live on the dole may still get their checks (or “deposits” on their EBT cards), it will no longer be able to buy anything, because the prices of everything have gone up 500% overnight. What will happen in the inner cities, when people realize they can’t put food on the table, much less put gas in their cars? Gerald Celente summarized it best: “when people lose everything, and they have nothing left to lose, they lose it.” And they will. It is my opinion, that the downward spiral will far exceed what we’ve already seen in Greece. The starvation and violence will eclipse Greece by many orders of magnitude. The key reason is that we’re the most heavily armed country in the world, and when the wool is pulled from peoples’ eyes, they’re not going to be happy with our government “representatives.”

    THIS is the reason why the Obama administration is pushing so hard for “gun control.” The scam is almost over, and when it is, people are first going to be fighting for their survival. When they realize that the country has been robbed blind by the corrupt politicians in D.C. (and at all more-local levels of government), they’re going to be out for blood. The DHS, it has been suggested, is the personal army of the Obama administration. It’s why the DHS has ordered 1.6 billion rounds of hollow-point ammunition, tanks, drones, body armor and thousands of REAL assault rifles. They know the American citizens are going to come after them, and they truly believe they can intimidate and disarm the public. They believe they’re more enlightened than the rest of us, and that we don’t matter.

    The government has made their choice abundantly clear. They intend to retain power over the American people, regardless of the cost. We are all slaves- taxpayers, tax collectors, police, military, people down on their luck, the middle class… They’re perfectly happy to use 20 dead slave children- and hundreds of thousands more in the Middle East- to maintain that power, and won’t let any “crisis go to waste,” to gain more power. Their viewpoint- to be blunt- is that we are ALL expendable. You need to understand that fact.

    It is my firm belief that the financial collapse- intentionally caused- will create a civil war. Those who think they can escape to Costa Rica (as a fellow traveler told me on an airplane two days ago), Russia, Argentina or some other lovely Caribbean country, are fooling themselves.

    Americans have always been inventors, and our biggest invention wasn’t nuclear power, it wasn’t advanced medicine or the harnessing of electricity. Our biggest invention was the financial virus which now infects the entire world. There’s nowhere to run, nowhere to hide. The pain unleashed from this virus, will unleash an ugly side of humanity, not witnessed for hundreds of years.

    I beg you, to get prepared, both emotionally and physically. There are a lot of forums that go into how to prepare for the collapse, if you do web search.

    There is an old Japanese proverb, “Preparation does not guarantee success, but the lack of preparation guarantees failure.” Do what you can, prepare as best you can.

    There’s not much time.
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  8. LastChanceArmada Bar Regular

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    You really think futures should be banned? I don't see how futures could be banned since they are little more than two parties agreeing to pay for a commodity at a fixed price at some point in the future; if anything, they seem like a stabilization mechanism.

    Anyway, I would like to hear your input if you were a derivatives trader at one point. (My ex-, who hated working in the finance biz, once thought she was going to get "into" derivatives trading as if that would somehow be stress-free and fun compared to being a mutual fund wholesaler.) All I know is that I once thought I was going to get into trading futures but wisely got talked out of it by a precious metals dealer who told me he got his "ass handed to him" when he tried it, and I think that was some of the best advice I ever received. The average person just has no business day trading, much less short selling or dabbling in futures; I've never seen anyone make money from it long-term but I have seen a couple wipe out their life's savings (admittedly idiots doing little more than satiating their gambling fetish, but the point was not lost on me.)

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