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Discussion in 'Jewlag' started by Macrobius, Aug 27, 2011.

  1. Mr. Prac ϟϟ ✞ 卐

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    Mr. Bluto has given ya some good advice, crapo, ya bum. Stop poopin' in those sinks, too, ya fart-sucker.
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  2. apollonian Forum Veteran

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    James Rickards sees gold standard at US$7,000 per ounce in the face of a dollar collapse


    Link: http://www.bi-me.com/main.php?id=56565&t=1&c=38&cg=4&mset=1011

    Source: Euro Pacific Precious Metals , Author: Posted by BI-ME staff

    Posted: Wed February 8, 2012 9:56 am
    INTERNATIONAL. James Rickards recently released his first book, Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, and it's creating a buzz. Peter Schiff often talks about competitive devaluation of currencies as the main driver behind gold and silver investments.

    Recently, Schiff sat down with Rickards to get his perspective on what's behind these currency wars, and find out what he recommends investors do to preserve their wealth through this tumultuous time.

    Peter Schiff: You portray recent monetary history as a series of currency wars - the first being 1921-1936, the second being 1967-1987, and the third going on right now. This seems accurate to me. In fact, my father got involved in economics because he saw the fallout of what you would call Currency War II, back in the '60s. What differentiates each of these wars, and what is most significant about the current one?

    James Rickards: Currency wars are characterized by successive competitive devaluations by major economies of their currencies against the currencies of their trading partners in an effort to steal growth from those trading partners.

    While all currency wars have this much in common, they can occur in dissimilar economic climates and can take different paths. Currency War I (1921-1936) was dominated by a deflationary dynamic, while Currency War II (1967-1987) was dominated by inflation. Also, CWI ended in the disaster of World War II, while CWII was brought in for a soft landing, after a very bumpy ride, with the Plaza Accords of 1985 and the Louvre Accords of 1987.

    What the first two currency wars had in common, apart from the devaluations, was the destruction of wealth resulting from an absence of price stability or an economic anchor.

    Interestingly, Currency War III, which began in 2010, is really a tug-of-war between the natural deflation coming from the depression that began in 2007 and policy-induced inflation coming from Fed easing. The deflationary and inflationary vectors are fighting each other to a standstill for the time being, but the situation is highly unstable and will "tip" into one or the other sooner rather than later.

    Inflation bordering on hyperinflation seems like the more likely outcome at the moment because of the Fed's attitude of "whatever it takes" in terms of money-printing; however, deflation cannot be ruled out if the Fed throws in the towel in the face of political opposition.

    Peter: You and I agree that the dollar is on the road to ruin, and we both have made some drastic forecasts about what the government might do in the face of the dollar collapse. How might this scenario play out in your view?

    James: The dollar is not necessarily on the road to ruin, but that outcome does seem highly likely at the moment. There is still time to pull back from the brink, but it requires a specific set of policies: breaking up big banks, banning derivatives, raising interest rates to make the US a magnet for capital, cutting government spending, eliminating capital gains and corporate income taxes, going to a personal flat tax, and reducing regulation on job-creating businesses. However, the likelihood of these policies being put in place seems remote - so the dollar collapse scenario must be considered.

    Few Americans are aware of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA)... it gives any US president dictatorial powers to freeze accounts, seize assets, nationalize banks, and take other radical steps to fight economic collapse in the name of national security. Given these powers, one could see a set of actions including seizure of the 6,000 tons of foreign gold stored at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York which, when combined with Washington's existing hoard of 8,000 tons, would leave the US as a gold superpower in a position to dictate the shape of the international monetary system going forward, as it did at Bretton Woods in 1944.

    Peter: You write in your book that it's possible that President Obama may call for a return to a pseudo-gold standard. That seems far-fetched to me. Why would a bunch of pro-inflation Keynesians in Washington voluntarily restrict their ability to print new money? Wouldn't such a program require the government to default on its bonds?

    James: My forecast does not pertain specifically to President Obama, but to any president faced with economic catastrophe. I agree that a typically Keynesian administration will not go to the gold standard easily or willingly. I only suggest that they may have no choice but to go to a gold standard in the face of a complete collapse of confidence in the dollar. It would be a gold standard of last resort, at a much higher price - perhaps US$7,000 per ounce or higher.

    This is similar to what President Roosevelt did in 1933 when he outlawed private gold ownership but then proceeded to increase the price 75% in the middle of the worst sustained period of deflation in U.S. history.

    Peter: You also write that you were asked by the Department of Defense to teach them to attack other countries using monetary policy. Do you believe there has a been an deliberate attempt to rack up as much public debt as possible - from the Chinese, in particular - and then strategically default through inflation?

    James: I do not believe there has been a deliberate plot to rack up debt for the strategic purpose of default; however, something like that has resulted anyway.

    Conventional wisdom is that China has the US over a barrel because it holds more than US$2 trillion of US dollar-denominated debt, which it could dump at any time. In fact, the US has China over a barrel because it can freeze Chinese accounts in the face of any attempted dumping and substantially devalue the worth of the money we owe the Chinese. The Chinese themselves have been slow to realize this. In hindsight, their greatest blunder will turn out to be trusting the US to maintain the value of its currency.

    Peter: In your book, you lay out four possible results from the present currency war. Please briefly describe these and which one do you feel is most likely and why.

    James: Yes, I lay out four scenarios, which I call "The Four Horsemen of the Dollar Apocalypse."

    The first case is a world of multiple reserve currencies with the dollar being just one among several. This is the preferred solution of academics. I call it the "Kumbaya Solution" because it assumes all of the currencies will get along fine with each other. In fact, however, instead of one central bank behaving badly, we will have many.

    The second case is world money in the form of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). This is the preferred solution of global elites. The foundation for this has already been laid and the plumbing is already in place. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) would have its own printing press under the unaccountable control of the G20. This would reduce the dollar to the role of a local currency, as all important international transfers would be denominated in SDRs.

    The third case is a return to the gold standard. This would have to be done at a much higher price to avoid the deflationary blunder of the 1920s, when nations returned to gold at an old parity that could not be sustained without massive deflation due to all of the money-printing in the meantime. I suggest a price of US$7,000 per ounce for the new parity.

    My final case is chaos and a resort to emergency economic powers. I consider this the most likely because of a combination of denial, delay, and wishful thinking on the part of the monetary elites.

    Peter: What do you see as Washington's end-game for the present currency war? What is their best-case scenario?

    James: Washington's best-case scenario is that banks gradually heal by making leveraged profits on the spreads between low-cost deposits and safe government bonds. These profits are then a cushion to absorb losses on bad assets and, eventually, the system becomes healthy again and can start the lending-and-spending game over again.

    I view this as unlikely because the debts are so great, the time needed so long, and the deflationary forces so strong that the banks will not recover before the needed money-printing drives the system over a cliff - through a loss of confidence in the dollar and other paper currencies.

    Peter: I don't think this scenario is likely either, but say it were... would it be healthy for the American economy to have to carry all these zombie banks that depend on subsidies for survival? Wouldn't it be better to just let the toxic assets and toxic banks flush out of the system?

    James: I agree completely. There's a model for this in the 1919-1920 depression, when the US government actually ran a balanced budget and the private sector was left to clean up the mess. The depression was over in 18 months and the US then set out on one of its strongest decades of growth ever. Today, in contrast, we have the government intervening everywhere, with the result that we should expect the current depression to last for years - possibly a decade.

    Peter: How long do you think Currency War III will last?

    James: History shows that Currency War I lasted 15 years and Currency War II lasted 20 years. There is no reason to believe that Currency War III will be brief. It's difficult to say, but it should last 5 years at least, possibly much longer.

    Peter: From my perspective, what is unique about a currency war is that the object is to inflict damage on yourself, and the country often described as the winner is actually the biggest loser, because they've devalued their currency the most. Which currency do you think will come out of this war the strongest?

    James: I expect Europe and the euro will emerge the strongest after this currency war by doing the most to maintain the value of its currency while focusing on economic fundamentals, rather than quick fixes through devaluation.

    This is because the US and China are both currency manipulators out to reduce the value of their currencies. In the zero-sum world of currency wars, if the dollar and yuan are both down or flat, the euro must be going up. This is why the euro has not acted in accord with market expectations of its collapse.

    The other reason the euro is strong and getting stronger is because it is backed by 10,000 tons of gold - even more than the US This is a source of strength for the euro.

    Peter: You and I both connect the Fed's dollar-printing with the recent revolutions in the Middle East. This is because our inflation is being exported overseas and driving up prices for food and fuel in third-world countries. What do you think will happen domestically when all this inflation comes home to roost?

    James: The Fed will allow the inflation to grow in the US because it is the only way out of the non-payable debt.

    Initially, American investors will be happy because the inflation will be accompanied by rising stock prices. However, over time, the capital-destroying nature of inflation will become apparent - and markets will collapse. This will look like a replay of the 1970s.

    Peter: How long do you think China's elites will put up with the Fed's inflationary agenda before they start dumping their US dollar assets?

    James: The Chinese will never "dump" assets because this could cause the US to freeze their accounts. However, the Chinese will shorten the maturity structure of those assets to reduce volatility, diversify assets by reallocating new reserves towards euro and yen, increase their gold holdings, and engage in direct investment in hard assets such as mines, farmland, railroads, etc. All of these developments are happening now and the tempo will increase in future.

    Peter: In your view, what is the best way for investors to protect themselves from this crisis?

    James: My recommended portfolio is 20% gold, 5% silver, 20% undeveloped land in prime locations with development potential, 15% fine art, and 40% cash. The cash is not a long-term position but does give an investor short-term wealth preservation and optionality to pivot into other asset classes when there is greater visibility.

    Peter: What, if any, silver lining do you see for us in the future?

    James: I continue to have faith in the democratic process and the wisdom of the American people. Through elections, we might be able to change leadership and implement new policies before it's too late.

    Failing that, the worst outcomes are all but unavoidable.

    Notes: James G. Rickards is Senior Managing Director at Tangent Capital Partners LLC , a merchant bank based in New York City, and is Senior Managing Director for Market Intelligence at Omnis, Inc., a technical, professional and scientific consulting firm located in McLean, VA.

    Peter Schiff is CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Precious Metals, a gold and silver coin and bullion dealer offering honest products at competitive prices.

    This article first appeared on Peter Shiff's monthly Gold Report. To subscribe to the Gold Report please click here.

    For more information about Euro Pacific Precious Metals, please click here or visit www.europacmetals.com

    For more information about Euro Pacific Capital, please visit www.europac.net/
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  3. Bluto Drunken lout

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  4. apollonian Forum Veteran

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    --figures--stupid, ignorant buffoon caricature scum--not to mention jewwy fag too
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  5. Bluto Drunken lout

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    Get a job, nigger.
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  6. apollonian Forum Veteran

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  7. Bluto Drunken lout

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    Yer puttin' da cart before da horse, nigger- furst, get a job. Get a place to live & start savin' some scratch & then diversifies & buys gold & silver.
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  8. apollonian Forum Veteran

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    Cascading risk and economic headwinds – 5 charts examining the coming financial challenges for the American economy. Inflation is much higher than you would expect but Federal Reserve orchestrating greatest banking bailout in history.


    Link: http://www.mybudget360.com/cascadin...-examining-fed-inflation-bailouts-dollar-oil/


    The American economy appears on the rugged surface to be stabilizing but only if you fail to look under the hood. Today, we have a record 46,000,000 Americans on food stamps. Many of these people were once moving into the middle class but were launched off the economic treadmill. The banking syndicate that caused the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression has largely blocked any substantive financial reform. So all the risks that led to the crash are not only pervasive in the system but are now much larger since governments are largely backing these giant irresponsible bets. The data for the typical American shows a gloomy economy largely disconnected from the news pushed out by Wall Street investment banks. Today we examine five charts and the implication they contain for the future of the American economy.



    Chart 1 – Housing starts and permits



    We first start with the collapse in the housing market. This is a giant part of the economy because residential housing has always been a key player in any economic recovery. Housing starts have collapsed to levels last seen in the Great Depression. The chart above is instrumental to understanding the massive lag that housing will have on the economy.

    For example, at one point housing starts were running over 2,000,000+ homes per year. This incredible pace is now down to 500,000 and is slightly picking up. This is a key indicator to look at since builders are on the ground and have a better sense of demand. With many baby boomers downsizing and more foreclosures coming online, there is little reason to assume a major burst in residential building activity is in the cards for the short-term. As a matter of fact the odds are this may move lower in the next couple of years.

    Chart 2 – Home prices continue to move lower



    More on the housing front, most Americans carry most of their net worth in real estate equity. Well when home prices are down by over 33 percent from the peak you begin to understand that the vast majority of American households have seen their largest asset class crash. Over $7 trillion dollars in perceived housing wealth is now gone. The above chart is important because it highlights the reality that those in the home buying market are there but are willing to pay only a lower price. Do you think that the average per capita income of $25,000 a year has something to do with this as well?

    When you look at charts like the above you realize that we are witnessing a lost decade in our housing market. The odds of having two lost decades are very strong. Why? Typically housing values went up with household incomes. Where are we seeing wages increase? To the contrary global economic pressures are pushing wages even lower. Without sustained household income growth there is little reason to believe real estate values will move up. This also goes with the first chart since builders want to maximize their return and to compete with current foreclosures at much lower prices is still not worth their time. Otherwise, we would see home builder permit activity blast off.

    Chart 3 – Inflation is picking up outside of housing



    Inflation excluding housing has picked up some significant speed. Since the lows of the recession inflation is running at roughly 4 percent excluding housing. Since household wages are stagnant this mean Americans are becoming poorer simply by the momentum of inflation. Each dollar you get is purchasing much less. This must come as no surprise. Just go to your local grocery and see if prices are falling. Try taking a look at the tuition for colleges and see if prices are lower. Things are getting more expensive because actions taken by the Fed to aid their banking colleagues are simply devaluing the dollar. This is the hidden cost of the Fed and banking bailouts that rarely hit the media. They just assume inflation is a natural part of any economic system.

    Think cheap energy is still cheap? Oil is sometimes viewed as a proxy for US dollar health and currently we are seeing a surge in this part of the economy.

    Chart 4 – Oil prices surge



    Cheap energy is still a large mover in our economy and the fact that many automakers had good years played on the momentum of cheap energy that hit once the bubble burst in 2009. Look at the chart above. The cost to fill up your car is now over $4 a gallon in many places but this is only the direct link. This rise in fuel costs will be seen in many items like:


    -Passed on costs for food transport

    -Airline travel

    -Products that use oil as an ingredient

    This is a massive part of our economy. Only 30 years ago the US imported roughly 28 percent of the oil we use. Today it is approximately 60 percent. Think this won’t have an impact on the economy especially when you combine it with the weak housing market and pressure on lower wages?

    Chart 5 – The working America



    The civilian-participation ratio continues to hike lower. You have an older population with many baby boomers retiring impacting this figure. You also have many that have fallen into the dark shadows like many of those on food assistance. You have many going back to school or staying in school buy many are being lured in by paper mill jungles of for-profit colleges. The fact that this figure continues to move lower on the surface improves the unemployment rate. After all, if you don’t count yourself as looking for work then how can you be unemployed?

    Here is some interesting math to consider:


    “(OfTwoMinds) The official unemployment rate was 10% in October 2009, when about 140 million people were found to have some sort of job, and now that the same number of people have been found to have some sort of job (140 million), the unemployment rate is now only 8.3%, even though the nation has added roughly 6 million residents to the workforce.

    Huh? How can 140 million jobs generate an unemployment rate of 10% in 2009 and 8.3% in 2012 while the workforce and population have grown by 6 million? If anything, the unemployment rate should be higher, since the number of people with jobs has held steady while the number of people without jobs has expanded.”

    As usual with media reporting and projections from the financial sector it is wise for you to use your own judgment. If you look under the hood of the economy, things remain precariously weak for most Americans while financial sector profits soar. Not bad when you have the Fed funneling trillions of dollars in bailouts for massively bad bets that go unchecked.
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  9. Mr. Prac ϟϟ ✞ 卐

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  10. apollonian Forum Veteran

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    As US Debt To GDP Passes 101%, The Global Debt Ponzi Enters Its Final Stages


    Link: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/us-debt-gdp-passes-101-global-debt-ponzi-enters-its-final-stages

    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/21/2012 17:29 -0500

    Today, without much fanfare, US debt to GDP hit 101% with the latest issuance of $32 billion in 2 Year Bonds. If the moment when this ratio went from double to triple digits is still fresh in readers minds, is because it is: total debt hit and surpassed the most recently revised Q4 GDP on January 30, or just three weeks ago. Said otherwise, it has taken the US 21 days to add a full percentage point to this most critical of debt sustainability ratios: but fear not, with just under $1 trillion in new debt issuance on deck in the next 9 months, we will be at 110% in no time. Still, this trend made us curious to see who has been buying (and selling) US debt over the past year. The results are somewhat surprising. As the chart below, which highlights some of the biggest and most notable holders of US paper, shows, in the period December 31, 2010 to December 31, 2011, there have been two very distinct shifts: those who are going all in on the ponzi, and those who are gradually shifting away from the greenback, and just as quietly, and without much fanfare of their own, reinvesting their trade surplus in something distinctly other than US paper. The latter two: China and Russia, as we have noted in the past. Yet these are more than offset by... well, we'll let the readers look at the chart below based on TIC data and figure out it.



    That the Fed is now actively monetizing US debt is beyond dispute (although some semantic holdouts remain - we are quite happy for them). Alas, with China, which has traditionally been the biggest buyer of US paper, no longer buying Treasurys, we are confident that the Fed will have no choice but to be dragged kicking and screaming once again into the fray, especially since traditional buyers of paper, even when allowing for exponential repo market leveraging (and someone please look at what is going on in the BoNY, State Street sponsored $15 trillion quicksand of repo'ed securities, which is the biggest black hole in the shadow banking system and will be the next pillar of the ponzi system to collapse) will be unable to keep up with US issuance. Especially since Primary Dealers already saw their Treasury holding rise to an all time high in the past week, and are loaded to the gills with US paper. So who is buying? Why Japan and the UK.

    Japan and the UK? Hmm, if these two names sound oddly familiar, allow us to refresh one's memory. Behold the pristine leverage condition of both these two countries, in all its glory.



    Hint: look at the far left.

    So somehow the world's two most indebted countries (recall that Japan is about to in total pass 1 quadrillion debt) are out there and buying up the biggest amount of US debt (after the Fed of course)? Sorry, but while we are amusing by this attempt by the global ponzi regime to keep itself alive (even as Russia and China prudently step aside from the mauling that is sure to follow), whereby the most indebted nations keep buying each other's debt in the most transparent and potentially deadly shell game in history, we are also confident this is unsustainable. Which means the Fed will have no choice but to step in. And since when it comes to the capital markets, the ride up is over since we have now crossed the point where incremental profits are drowned by incremental input costs (thank you $106 WTI), the Fed now has just one mandate: to keep the US fiscal machine well-greased by buying up US debt at zero (and beginning in May negative) rates, through wanton monetization. 2012 may prove to be quite eventful after all.
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  11. apollonian Forum Veteran

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  12. Mr. Prac ϟϟ ✞ 卐

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    2012 may prove to be quite uneventful after all.
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  13. apollonian Forum Veteran

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  14. Mr. Prac ϟϟ ✞ 卐

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  15. Macrobius The Old Usager

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    Well, it's been a year. Our benchmark PBR six pack still costs 5.99 USD at my local store, but gold is down 5.69% year over year.

    No sign of hyperinflation yet. If you bought gold, you are out both beer and dollars.
  16. Macrobius The Old Usager

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    Gold closed at 53.28 a gram. A six pack of PBR is still 5.99 USD since last August. Gold is off 6% in 6 months, but the USD and PBR hold their relative value still.

    Appy's so Christian he waits for the Second Coming of Mammon like Linus waits for the Great Pumpkin in the pumpkin patch.
  17. Apocales 4:35a.m. just one more episode..

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  18. apollonian Forum Veteran

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    whatever--u utterly senile old moron
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  19. Macrobius The Old Usager

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    For those who might be wonder, what with the Cyprus bank runs and so on, how the USD, Gold, and PBR are doing:

    A six pack of PBR is still 5.99 USD at the store.

    Gold is 51.72 USD/gram -- about what it was when this thread started, a year and a half ago. In the interim, it has varied up and down by about 20%, whereas a 6-pack of PBR most weeks has cost exactly the same price in USD.

    http://goldprice.org/gold-price-per-gram.html

    No hyperinflation yet. Still waiting, Appy. Appy? Appy? Good God, someone call 911, I think he hasn't moved in months.
  20. Mr. Prac ϟϟ ✞ 卐

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    Macrobius wins yet again.
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  21. Macrobius The Old Usager

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    Gold is a highly speculative commodity, and its price in USD is very volatile, unlike Pabst Blue Ribbon beer, which is a safer and more stable investment, as commodities go.

    Beer > Gold. THIS IS THE BARREL!

    From my assertion in the OP:

    Macrobius said:
    And fine, you can pick gold and I can pick a dollar. There is one observable consequence though -- if you happen to pick gold, *everything in the world ends up looking more volatile*. If you pick the dollar, they look more stable.
  22. Macrobius The Old Usager

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    And the audience will note, Appy has long since given up rational argumentation against obvious counterargument.

    Are his posts *actually* distinguishable from the repetitive cawing of crows or hooting of chimps? Even the mockingbird can manage tuneful phrases of relative complexity, endlessly repeated....

  23. Macrobius The Old Usager

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    Gold finsihed down quite a bit today. Appy's gram is now 47.51

    Since a six pack of PBR is still 5.99 USD at my local store (same price as when this thread began), Appy can buy 7.93 six packs with his gram of gold -- 2.1 six packs less than when we started this thread (so much for the superior virtues of saving 'real-money-which-is-gold[tm]'). Gold is only useful for Jews fleeing a country, because it carries a lot of value per weight -- and just as utterly useless a Bitcoin, as a store of value, because of its volatility.

    The predicted hyperinflation in USD has yet to occur, and what has happened is that gold has been volatile, and prices rigid in the downward direction -- businesses would rather lay people off than reduce prices. Just like Keynes, and not the Austrians, said.
  24. Macrobius The Old Usager

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    Closing price 53.38 a gram.
  25. Macrobius The Old Usager

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    44.97 USD/gram, off 15% from a year ago, and 20% from 6 months ago.

    Down 2 cans.
  26. Mr. Prac ϟϟ ✞ 卐

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    Mac has won.
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  27. Macrobius The Old Usager

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